The 'Cyclic Market Model'
24.08.2001
By Beat Thoma & Dr. Norbert Voss
The simple 'cyclic market model' of Beat Thoma was empirically analysed by Dr. Norbert Voss.
The 'Cyclic Market Model'
View / download article about the 'Cyclic Market Model' (PDF / german / 4 pages / 30 KB) |
Beat Thoma describes a 'simpel, yet reliable model for market cycles' in the last chapter of his book Dynamische Prozesse in der Ökonomie und an den Finanzmärkten [1]. The model extrapolates its market forecast based on two variables: interest rates and stock market trends.
This 'cyclic market model' was summarized in an article for the magazine Invest and the same article appeared on technical-investor.de . Beat Thoma points out the advantages of convertible bonds. As a hybrid product between interest rates and equities, convertibles are particlarly suited to profit of the 'cyclic market model'.
Empirical analysis of the 'cyclic market model'
View / download statistical analysis by Dr. Voss (PDF / german / 6 pages / 37 KB) |
Dr. Norbert Voss read the article and ran an empirical analysis for timeframe between 1956 and 2001. His research asserts the existence of a 'cyclic market model' and the practical use of this model.
[1] CIP-Einheitsaufnahme
Thoma, Beat:
Dynamische Prozesse in der Ökononmie und an den Finanzmärkten:
mathematische Prinzipien und Computersimulation zur Analyse von Konjunktur und Börsenzyklen / von Beat Thoma.
München;Wien:
Oldenbourg, 2000
(Lehr- und Handbücher zu Geld, Börse, Bank und Versicherung)
ISBN 3-486-25422-7