Market insights

 
Volatility has returned to oil markets and we believe it is here to stay in the short- to medium-term. In the past five weeks, global crude oil prices have moved from 4-year highs into a bear market.

 
The market is rightfully focused on Argentina, Turkey and Russia at the moment, and so are we. However, there is another key event brewing in the background, and we see the next focus of investors to become Brazil with the October Presidential Election coming up.

The developments in Russia and Turkey need to be looked at separately. This is not the “EM Contagion” effect of the old days, rather these are a set of challenges unique to each country that are coincidental rather than systematic.