Market insights

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As the "X-date" approaches, markets are becoming increasingly nervous. CIO Beat Thoma explains why the negotiations are likely to be even more difficult this time and what investors can learn from similar episodes in the past.

Stubborn inflation could lead to an 'over-tightening' of monetary policy. IG corporates are well positioned for such an environment and should subsequently also benefit more than other asset classes from interest rates falling again.

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Investors are currently still underweight EM corporate bonds. Combined with positive company fundamentals and improving growth prospects, we therefore view the return potential as promising.

We continue to see entry opportunities following the strong rally of recent weeks. For example, almost 70% of all US CBs are still trading below par after the weak 2022. At the same time, the environment for small & mid caps is very favourable.

The economic environment currently poses some challenges for high-yield issuers. At the same time, we see supporting factors and expect a sustainable market recovery in the second half of the year at the latest.